Self Funded Growth
Just how fast can your business afford to Grow and remain Self
Funding? Unplanned funding is always expensive!
The Basic Concept
We know of the well documented failures of pure
.com start-ups, but what was the story behind those bricks and mortar
businesses, nimble enough to adopt a new channel, wise enough to
maintain their traditional cash-cow. People laughed when they were told these
businesses grew themselves into bankruptcy. Since consumption is the
life blood of Wall Street, any cautioning voice seems muffled,
so make sure you read on or better still search for the paper of Neil
C. Churchill and John Mullins published in 2001 in the HBR
2001 May edition. "How Fast Can Your Company Afford to Grow?
SFG and your Cash Operating Cycle!
Understanding self-funded growth is a great exercise in and of itself Why?
- Well
instead of having an informed opinion or an instinct that accelerating
growth can cause you headaches, now you can quantify your constraints.
- You will know what sets of actions you can
take (apart from slowing growth or turning business away!) to alleviate
your constraints.
- You will know how to direct your team appropriately and
prioritize what
needs to be done better.
- You know to keep an eye on how the fixed assets you finance
this year
can constrain you unexpectedly later on.
- You'll
never have to go and raise money from an external source, which is time
consuming, emotionally draining, and value destroying.
- You will
appreciate the value of having some standardization instead of multiple
product lines and customized service for those large "valuable"
customers.
- Perhaps you will appreciate more the smaller customers that
allow you
to grow without stressing the business.
- Now
you will treat a little more skeptically the Sales and Business
Development folk planning delivery of that one really large account.
- But perhaps most importantly you are better equipped to
weather any
unexpected shock or "Black Swan" event.
What follows is a summary of some parts of their original
paper and
extra detail in other parts. For those of you who mock MBAs (none do
more than I), this is a good example of why MBAs can be good. This is
one of the papers I have kept from my year at INSEAD, and is my own
personal copy from my lecture notes.
Asking the right questions
We agree that it takes money to make money. A business, even one with a
tight, scalable business model will consume more cash in its growth
phase, than in its steady state.Unlike those instances when we claim
certainty to the fact that the world is round and revolves around the
sun until our kids demand proof, which we cannot provide let's
get into some necessary detail in the pursuit of growing your
business!
There are two questions that require answers:
- for
what period of time is your company's money tied up in
inventory and other current assets before customers pay for the end
product or services?
- what amount
of cash is needed to finance each unit of sales and what is the amount
of
cash generated by each ZAR of sales?
By the way, my first real life encounter with this was at a
service company, so don't be fooled that this only happens to
manufacturers and those needing large fixed asset investment. Any
business that services a government institution must be wary of this,
as terms of payment that are months long, will kill you. Now after
reading this you will appreciate why some of us insist the easiest way
for the government to support SMEs is to ensure terms of payment within
14 days of delivery for any government department.
Terminology & Acronyms
This looks all muddled but the general case must cater for
the different combinations that various businesses have, some must pay
for their inventory before receiving it, and others can
pay later.
-
SFG
-
Self Financing Growth Rate- the rate at which growth
can be sustained by cash generated by the business itself without any
external source of funding
-
OCC
-
Operating Cash Cycle - the period of
time between starting
assembly of all the
required
inputs into the production line, and when the cash is handed over back
to the business as payment for the sale. The sale ie the customer has
the actual product or uses the service well before the business
receives payment. This difference is referred to Accounts
Receivable Days.
Like wise the time at which your production starts, having received
inventory, and the moment your business pays for this inventory is
the Accounts
Payable Days
-
CCC
- Cash Conversion Cycle -
the period of time that working capital is tied up. The time between
when it was converted from legal tender into one of the inputs for the
production line, and when the product converted it back to
tangible
cash handed to you when customers paid you in real money! or the
difference in time between OCC - Operating Cash Cycle and Account
Payable Days.
You will
observe that different
products have different inputs, different production times, and even
different terms of payment for large customers. These variations need to be kept to as few as possible
Understanding how long Cash gets tied up
A
timing diagram will serve us
well here, as we need to understand the
components of the OCC and CCC. The components can precede or
follow each other in a
variety of ways. But keeping it simple all we need to do is reduce the
duration over which
cash is tied up.
Now the inputs
are clearer.
- firstly the
period of time we have to pay our suppliers
- secondly
how much time we grant customers to pay us
- thirdly,
how much time we use in turning inventory into product that is sold,
which is made up of production, distribution and selling components,
this level of detail is sometime not initially available to you but can
be aggregated in Holding Inventory Days
Days? Days? where can
we get these or how can we derive them? Firstly, we will use data
spanning a 12 month time period, this has two advantages firstly you
have a better chance of sourcing accurate data if it comes from a
signed off Financial Statement, and secondly we can dampen the noise
from seasonality.
We have a Balance
Sheet for the years from which we can get
Working out conversion Days from Balance Sheet
Assets |
ZAR amount in (000) |
Equivalent Days |
Liabilities |
ZAR amount in (000) |
Equivalent Days |
Cash |
10 |
|
Accounts Payable |
99 |
Calc A |
Accounts
Rec |
384 |
Calc B |
Loan Repayments |
50 |
|
Inventory |
263 |
Calc C |
Current Liabilities |
149 |
|
Current
Assets |
657 |
|
Retained Earnings |
183 |
|
Plant
& Equip |
25 |
|
Capital Contributed |
350 |
|
Total
Assets |
682 |
|
Total Liabilities |
682 |
|
and we have an Income Statement
for the year, from which we can get
Working out conversion Days from Income Statement
IS Lines |
ZAR amount in (000) |
Day Equivalent |
Ratio |
Line |
ZAR amount in (000) |
Day Equivalent in (000) |
Ratios in % |
Revenue/Income |
2,000 |
=2,000 / 365 =
5.479 |
100 |
Cost of Sales |
1,200 |
=1,200 / 365 = 3.288 |
60 |
Profit |
800 |
|
40 |
Operating Expenses |
700 |
= 700 / 365 = 1.918 |
35 |
NPBT - Nett Profit Before
Tax |
100 |
|
5 |
- From the IS, the Day
Equivalent is simply the Year Total / Days in year
-
Thus the business generates ZAR 5479 of income per day at
a cost of ZAR 3288 per day.
-
Calc A - we owe a total of ZAR 99k to our suppliers, which
at 3288 per day comes to~ 30 days (99000/3288)
-
Calc B - we are owed ZAR 384k from our customers, which at
ZAR 5479 per day comes to ~70 days (384000/5479).
-
Likewise for Calc C, the amount of inventory we
have paid for and need to turn into a sold product in
equivalent days is ~ 80 days (263000/3288)
If we fill in our original as-is timing diagram, we get the following:
Cycle Components |
Days |
Days Holding Inventory |
80 |
Days Account
Receivable |
70 |
OCC |
150 |
Days Account Payable |
(30) |
CCC |
120 |
Operating Expenses |
75 |
We still need to account for the OpEx - Salaries, Utilities, Rent,
Marketing Costs, we can safely assume (but check this for your
business) that bills arrive uniformly over the 150 day OCC
period, meaning some will be paid immediately (Day 150) or have to wait
(Day 1), on average this is 75 days. So now we know for how
long
the cash is tied up, now we just have to see how
much is tied up.
You should now interpret the information as follows. The OCC is 150
days, but because the business has 30 days to pay the suppliers, the
CCC is 120 days, in other words the cash is only tied up for 120/150 of
the time ie 80% of the time.
Like wise for the Operating expense where we assumed a uniform
distribution over the period and that some would be paid immediately
and some would have to wait for the cycle to finish 150 days, on
average it is 75 days or 50% of the OCC
Using the ratios we had above in the original income statement we can
now answer the following:
what amount of cash is needed to finance each unit of sales and
what is the amount
of cash generated by each ZAR of sales?
Cash Conversion at work on your IS
Income Statement Line |
Per ZAR |
with CCC factoring |
effective per ZAR |
Revenue/Income |
1.00 |
|
|
Cost of Sales |
0.60 |
80% (120/150) |
0.48 |
Operating Expense |
0.35 |
50% (75/150) |
0.18 |
Total Costs |
0.95 |
Cash
tied up per 1 ZAR of Sales Revenue |
0.66 |
Profit Before Tax |
0.05 |
Free Cash generated per
ZAR of
Sales |
0.05 |
Cash needed for each OCC |
0.66 |
You now know a lot about your business!
What we know |
Where we look? |
How much? |
The Cash Generated from 1
ZAR of Sales |
By looking at the income
statement ratio |
0.05 |
The time in days of your
OCC |
Calculated from Holdings
Inventory Days + Accounts Rec Days |
80 + 70 = 150 |
The CCC time to cycle cash
used in the OCC |
Calculated from OCC -
Accounts Payable Days |
150 - 30 = 120 |
The cash tied up in each
OCC for a 1 ZAR Sales Income |
Restated IS with CCC
factored in for OpEx and Inventory |
0.18 + 0.48 = 0.66 |
Your per cycle growth rate |
Free Cash that can be
added to the OCC cash requirement |
0.05 of 0.66 ~ 7.57% |
how many cycles can be
completed in a year |
Days in Year available
divided by OCC |
365/150 = 2.43 |
Assume a productivity
factor for safety |
90% as
a reasonable contingency for strikes etc |
2.43 x 0.9 = 2.19 |
Compounded Annual Self
Funded growth Rate |
(1+ SFG)OCC
cycles - 1) = (1 + 0.0757) 2.19 -1
= |
17.3% |
You now know a lot about your business!
17.3% growth, self funded is not bad, but things rarely go as we
plan, in which case, what can we do to improve this. We have already
mentioned shortening the AR Days, decreasing Inventory Holding
Days, or negotiating better AP days with suppliers, are there more
tactics available and which has the greatest impact?
Meanwhile consider the impact of something pretty easy, and which might even go unnoticed in the business
If we just shorten our accounts Receivable days from 70 to 30 days, perfectly reasonable, what impact would that have?
- The OCC is now = 150 - 40 = 110 days
- CCC is 110-30 = 80 days
- Cash needed for Cost of Sales is = 0.60 * 80/110 = 43 cents
- We have not targeted operating costs yet = 18 cents
- Round everything up and we now need 62 cents instead of 66 cents (6% improvement)
- Your per cycle growth rate is 5 cents/ 62 cents = 8% growth rate
- How many cycles can you do in a year now? 365/110 = 3.3 cycles up from 2.43! (36% improvement!)
- Add a contingency of 95% gives us 3.13 cycles
- Compounded over a year we now get (1+ SFG) nbr of cycles – 1) = (1 +0.08) 3.1 -1) = 26% from 17% originally!
Key Takeaways for you to consider
- That large corporate account you cherish and of which some sales rep is overly proud they landed, may well be actually destroying value in your business; large corporate accounts get over-serviced (and I doubt you allocate those costs properly) and pay you late!
- Growing with a greater number of smaller customers, steadily over time, within your means and without being bullied delivers more value and less stress.
- There are easy and clever ways to add lots of value to your business, that cost very little to implement, but do require an understanding of how cash gets tied up.
- No entrepreneur or single star corporate manager is ever great at all of Sales, Production, Operations and Cash Management, so get people who can complement your skill set, and allow you to do what you enjoy!